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May 23 2016

This Week’s Market Moving Events

Market Recap:

In spite of headlines alerting investors that major indexes such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average have declined four weeks in a row, markets are a mere 3 ½% off their all-time highs. More significant than the eye-catching headlines, markets have been acting rationally, punishing companies who haven’t delivered on their earnings and growth promises, while rewarding those that have. Yes, the upcoming June Fed meeting and fears of a potential “Brexit” (Great Britain exiting the Eurozone) are adding to the volatility, and there continue to be some concerns over the broad economic outlook, but overall markets activity has been sensible and calm. The energy sector continues to be amongst the best performers in reaction to rising oil prices, while large-cap pharma stocks are trading on expected consolidation.

Looking ahead:

Investors will be paying close attention to key earning reports this week from companies like Autozone (S: AZO), Toll Brothers (S: TOL) and Tiffanies (TIF) to get a better reading on the health of the U.S. consumer.

This Week’s Market Moving Events:

Monday: Autozone (: AZO) and Toll Brothers (S: TOL) report, no major economic data points are being released

Tuesday: EU Inflation data, U.S. PMI Manufacturing, New Home Sales, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity Index

Wednesday: Home Prices, International Trade

Thursday: Durable Goods, Jobless Claims, PMI Services, Pending Home Sales

Friday: Q2 GDP revision, Corporate Profits, Janet Yellen speaks

May 11 2016

Stocks rallied more than 1% on Tuesday, after a slew of positive earnings reports

Market recap:

Stocks rallied more than 1% on Tuesday, after a slew of positive earnings reports – including an impressive report from Amazon – lifted investor’s spirits. An absence of negative economic news and Fed speakers helped contribute to the rally as there was little new news for market bears to hang their hats on. A slight rally in Treasuries as well as the US dollar also contributed, as traders viewed this as confirmation that these are likely to remain in their current trading ranges. The JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Statistics) report gave little reason for the Fed to become more hawkish as we approach the June FOMC meeting. While there are over 5 ½ million job openings in the United States, the rate of job changes and length of time new jobs go unfilled continue to point to a somewhat weaker than normal jobs market.


Looking Ahead:

U.S. equity futures are pointing to a slightly negative open in early hours, as investors around the globe are taking a pause after yesterday’s rally to search for new reasons to lift share prices. There is little in terms of economic news today, so perhaps markets will experience some calmness before the deluge of earnings and economic data, including Thursday’s Import / Export price report as well as Friday’s retail sales report. Over the weekend, investors will get news on Chinese Industrial Production as well as Retail Sales, both numbers will be heavily dissected to discern the strength of the Chinese economy. Make sure to tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg this Saturday at 3:00 PM on The Answer 970 AM, visit our website for details.

Apr 26 2016

Further Volatility to cause Emotional Overreactions

Market Recap:

Stocks sold off and then rebounded to close the trading day near the flat line on Monday. While oil, which had been a key driver for stock market direction, was sharply down for the day, stocks in general fared better. The ‘new’ correlation seems to be with bonds, which sold off in the early part of the day before rebounding. Earnings season kicked into high gear as some 100 companies reported on Monday alone.


Looking Ahead:

Investors should expect further volatility as earnings and economic news releases are sure to cause emotional overreactions. Tomorrow’s FOMC announcement will likely contain language that indicates that the U.S. economy can sustain 2 or more interest rate hikes, however that the Fed has chosen to hold off due to international concerns. The Fed is in quite a bind, as it absolutely wants to raise rates, but is (rightfully) fearful that such a move will further strengthen the dollar, thereby weakening the Chinese Yuan, which could cause a significant banking crisis in the worlds’ second largest economy. Moreover, given the challenges that Europe and Japan are facing, the negative impact on these economies is also undesirable. As such, we continue to believe that commodity prices will remain somewhat depressed, that the U.S. dollar will remain in its current trading range, and that if the Fed doesn’t raise in June, no hike in 2016 is a significant possibility. From an investors perspective this will mean that interest rates will remain suppressed, making high-quality dividend paying stocks attractive alternatives for those seeking income in a low-yield environment. Don’t miss this week’s Money Matters with Gary Goldberg; for stations and air times, please click here. Visit our website at for more details, including for a free, no-obligation portfolio evaluation.

Apr 25 2016

This Week’s Market Moving Events

Market Recap:

While it may have been an uneventful week for markets, it was an important one. On the heels of a slew of (decent) earnings reports, major stock indexes stabilized and ended within arms-reach of their all-time highs. Speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve would hold interest rates steady at this week’s meeting became almost unanimous. And while we agree that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates this go around, we believe that the risks are in what Chairwoman Yellen says, not what the committee does. So far, Dr. Yellen has been on the Dovish side, a trend that is sure to end at some point.


Looking Forward:

Index futures as well as major international bourses are down slightly on Monday morning, as investors digest recent political events relating to President Obama’s European tour, the failed Doha accord and threats by Saudi Arabia relating American’s ability to sue foreign governments for damages due to terrorist related damages. More significantly, there are a slew of earnings reports and economic data on tap for the week, not least of which is the long-awaited April Fed meetings scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. Markets are likely to remain range bound until the Fed’s press conference on Wednesday afternoon or Thursday’s release of revised Q1 GDP data.


This Week’s Market Moving Events:

Monday: New Home Sales, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

Tuesday: Durable Goods Orders, Case Shiller Home Price Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Wednesday: International Trade data, FOMC Meeting Minutes and Press Conference

Thursday: GDP, Jobless Claims, Kansas City Manufacturing Index

Friday: Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence

Apr 18 2016

Wall St falls after oil meeting fails to result in production freeze

Market Recap 4/15/16:

U.S. stocks fell on Friday, pressured by energy shares as investors bet that a meeting of major oil-producing nations would do little to clear up the commodity’s oversupply glut. Though the correlation has somewhat faded of late, Wall Street remains closely tied to crude oil prices. Investors are worried that persistently weak prices could presage a broader economic slowdown, or that financial companies could be vulnerable to energy companies defaulting on loans if prices do not pick back up. Also weight on the markets on Friday was Apple (AAPL), following reports the tech giant was continuing its reduced production of iPhones in response to light demand. Despite the decline on the day, major indexes were positive for the week.

Looking ahead:

U.S. stock index futures fell on Monday after a weekend meeting of major oil nation failed to result in a freeze to their production targets. The news means that energy prices could stay low for a while, until global demand picks up in a big way – a uncertain prospect given slowing growth in China and increased use of alternative energy sources. Investors were also cautious as they awaited the latest corporate earnings, with Morgan Stanley (MS) scheduled to report before the market opens and both IBM (IBM) and Netflix (NFLX) coming out after the close. While earnings are seen falling this quarter, expectations may be so low as to make it easier for names to come in ahead of expectations. Don’t miss this week’s Money Matters with Gary Goldberg; for stations and air times, please click here. Visit our website at for more details, including for a free, no-obligation portfolio evaluation.

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