Jun 29 2015

This Week’s Market Moving Events

Market Recap 6/26/15:

Markets closed the week on a mixed but choppy note as a lack of any noteworthy news did little to move the markets significantly in a particular direction. Though there was added volume near the end of the day because of the Russell index’s mid-year rebalancing, the pause in negotiations gave investors some respite from the ups and downs of the week. Trading, particularly in the short term, has primarily been focused on headline news. The Greek debt negotiations experienced a rollercoaster ride during the past five days and took the market along with it. Not even some positive economic developments on the domestic front were enough to shake attention away from the debt situation. Optimism ruled the talks during the first two days of the week with the markets gaining on that sentiment. Wednesday, however, brought news of significant divisions left between the two sides and that hitch began what would be a three day losing streak for most of the major averages. At the end of the week, all four of the major averages closed with losses. The S&P, Dow, and Russell 2000 all fell by .4% while the Nasdaq lagged and declined by .7%. Losses among the S&P sectors were similarly broad-based though Telecom, Consumer Discretionary, and Healthcare managed to post gains on the week.


 

Looking Ahead:

Though the upcoming trading week will be a shortened one due to Friday’s holiday observance, it is nonetheless shaping up to be a volatile few days of trading. Though there are a few things on the domestic front to anticipate including Thursday’s all important jobs report, it is clear that Greek has the world’s attention after talks between Greek officials and its creditors failed over the weekend. With creditors rejecting Greece’s last bailout extension proposal, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has called for a referendum on July 5th to vote on the bailout extension proposal as dictated by Greece’s creditors. A proposal that Tsipras and the Greek government felt was unacceptable. In plain terms, the ramifications of that vote in six days are this; a yes vote would accept the bailout deal and the austerity measures its brings while a no vote rejects the deal and possibly begins a path that might eventually lead to Greece leaving the euro. Our President, Oliver Pursche, will be on CNBC live from the New York Stock Exchange this Tuesday afternoon at 3:45 PM to discuss the latest from Europe and our Third Quarter market outlook. And as always, make sure to listen to Money Matters with Gary Goldberg this Sunday at 11:00 AM on WOR 710 AM Radio to hear our latest economic and market analysis. Visit our website www.ggfs.com for details.


 

This Week’s Market Moving Events:

Monday: Pending Home Sales

Tuesday: Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence Index

Wednesday: ADP Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing

Thursday: Jobs Report, Initial Jobless Claims, Factory Orders

 

Jun 26 2015

Greek uncertainty & falling oil prices outweigh economic developments

6/25/15 Market Recap:

Equities ended a choppy trading session lower yesterday as Greek uncertainty and falling oil prices outweighed positive economic developments and strength in the Healthcare sector. Markets began the day on a positive note thanks to the release of some better than expected economic news. Consumer spending rose .9% in May, its greatest increase in over six years while jobless claims rose by less than consensus expectations. Also, despite the slight uptick, unemployment claims continued to fall under the 300k mark, a level consistent with a recovering employment market. However, these econ-led gains to begin the day were short-lived. Headline fears surrounding the Greek debt drama once again weighed on the markets along with the decreasing price of oil. All four averages closed the day lower with the Dow and S&P once again leading on the downside. Among the S&P sectors, energy lagged the most due to the aforementioned fall in oil prices, declining by slightly more than one percent. Healthcare stocks led, rising by almost half a percent, after the Supreme Court upheld some crucial Obamacare subsidies.


Looking Ahead:

Futures are little changed this morning with no new developments in the Greek situation to spur the markets in either direction. Trading this week has clearly centered around the Greek drama. During the first two days of the week, optimism surrounded the talks and pushed the markets forward as there seemed to be growing belief that an agreement was coming. Sentiment quickly changed early Wednesday morning after reports of significant divisions still remaining between the two sides and the markets went in the opposite direction over the last two trading days as this headline news has affected short term trading. Now, with the talks postponed till Saturday and a lack of major US economic data, we might be in for a tight range-bound day of trading with a market struggling for direction and investors cautious ahead of negotiations that will take place over the weekend. In overnight trading both Treasuries and the US Dollar were, like equities, little changed. Make sure to listen to Money Matters with Gary Goldberg this Sunday at 11:00 AM on WOR 710 AM Radio to hear our latest economic and market analysis. Visit our website www.ggfs.com for details.

 

Jun 25 2015

Optimism Gave Way To Pessimism Yesterday

Market Recap 6/24/15:

Optimism gave way to pessimism yesterday as it became clear that there are still significant roadblocks to a deal that would save Greece from a debt default. According to several reports, including one from the Wall Street Journal, there were plenty of red colored notations made by creditors on Greece’s latest drafted proposal. Major hurdles between the two sides include issues regarding pension reforms and where tax increases should come from. The disagreement even spilled into social media after Greek Prime Minister blasted creditors on Twitter stating that as long as Greece presents measures to accomplish the agreed upon deficit targets, those measures should be accepted by the creditors. He said further, “The repeated rejection of equivalent measures by certain institutions never occurred before, neither in Ireland nor Portugal. This odd stance seems to indicate that either there is no interest in an agreement or that special interests are being backed.” This wrench in the Greek debt drama pulled markets lower during today’s session after two days of positive momentum when the air around the negotiations was significantly more positive. Not even the upwardly revised final estimate of first quarter GDP, matching consensus expectations, could save the day. At the end of the day, losses were broad based with all four major averages and ten S&P sectors recording losses. Among the averages, the blue chip Dow Jones index fell the most, closing one percent lower on the session. It was the index’s worst one day performance in over a month. Materials performed the worst of the S&P sectors, falling by over 1.3%.


 

Looking Ahead:

Despite continued uncertainty in the Greek debt talks, futures are higher this morning as investors are choosing to focus on upcoming economic data. Complications in the Greek negotiations was the main cause of yesterday’s decline in the markets and though there was no major significant breakthrough in the talks overnight it is clear that the US investor is more interested in today’s data, which is expected to show that the economy is continuing to rebound at a moderate pace. Consumer income and spending, due at 8:30, is expected to show a rise in both income and outlays. Investors are particularly interested on the consumer spending side as there is increasing evidence that the American consumers are starting to loosen their wallets after a few months of no spending growth. Jobless claims, meanwhile, are once again expected to stay under the psychological 300k threshold, a continuing mark of the growing strength of the employment market. In overnight trading, Treasuries are falling slightly while the dollar has given up some ground against its major counterparts.


 

Make sure to listen to Money Matters with Gary Goldberg this Sunday at 11:00 AM on WOR 710 AM Radio to hear our latest economic and market analysis.  This week, Gary and his guest, former White House Chief of Staff John Sununu, have a terrific discussion regarding his book, “The Quiet Man: The Indispensable Presidency of George H.W. Bush.”  Visit our website www.ggfs.com for details.

Jun 24 2015

Equity Futures Are Moving Lower This Morning

Market Recap 6/23/15:

Once again, optimism surrounding a possible deal preventing a Greek default spurred the markets forward. Unlike Monday’s session however, trading yesterday was choppy and the market’s gains were merely modest. Economic data on the day was mixed with disappointing durable goods data being weighed against better than expected new home sales numbers. Much of the decline in orders came from a decrease in aircraft orders and flat sales of motor vehicles. Excluding transportation data, durable goods actually increased by .5%. Meanwhile, new home sales reached its highest levels since February of 2008. This development, along with multi-year highs for existing home sales, points to a housing market that is rebounding quite nicely and building momentum. At the end of the day, markets moved slightly higher with the leader, the Russell 2000, only rising by .26%. The ten S&P sectors were more of a mixed bag with five closing higher on the day and five closing lower. Telecom was the biggest gainer, rising by 1.3%, while Utilities fell by the same amount and lagged.

Looking Ahead:

Equity futures are moving lower this morning after reports that Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has told associates that Greece’s latest proposals were once again rejected by creditors. With much of the week’s positive action spurred by optimism that a deal was going to take place; it is no surprise that a breakdown in the talks is sending equities the other way. In their own report, the Wall Street Journal said that there are still “significant divisions” that remain between the Greeks and their creditors until they can further access bailout funds. These divisions include a set of laws that the Greek parliament would have to pass before they can access the funds. European leaders including German Chancellor Angela Merkel are very adamant that at least some of these actions must be complete before an agreement takes place. If a deal isn’t reached by the end of this month, Greece will default on a 1.55 billion euro payment owed to the International Monetary Fund on June 30. While investors digest these overnight global developments, they are also anticipating the release of the final estimate of first quarter GDP. GDP, which was revised to show a contraction of .7% during the second estimate, is expected to be revised upward to a show a contraction of .2%. Any surprise to the upside could be a positive catalyst for today’s trading.  Make sure to listen to Money Matters with Gary Goldberg this Sunday at 11:00 AM on WOR 710 AM Radio to hear our latest economic and market analysis. Visit our website www.ggfs.com for details.

 

Jun 23 2015

Markets began on a positive note and never looked back

6/22/15 Market Recap:

The markets began the day on a positive note and never looked back, ending the first trading session of the new week higher. Markets cheered positive developments coming out of Brussels where a last minute summit is finally leading to some optimism that a deal might actually get done in time to avoid a Greek default. According to reports, Greek officials are finally offering up some serious concessions during this go around including changes to pension spending along with streamlining or eliminating loopholes in the current tax code. A meeting between the European finance ministers will take place on Wednesday to finalize a proposal which will then be put towards leaders on Thursday. Though some officials continue to be skeptical, there is a real chance that a deal can be agreed upon by that meeting. These developments, along with M&A activity in the Healthcare space, and better than expected home sales data spurred the averages to gains of greater than half a percent with the Nasdaq registering an increase of .72% to lead on the day. Among the ten S&P sectors, Energy, Financials, and Healthcare were the top performers, gaining by 1%, .79%, and .76% respectively. Utilities were the sole decliner on the day, falling by .14%.


Looking Ahead:

Equity futures are marginally higher ahead of this morning’s open as investors become increasingly optimistic that a resolution will finally take place regarding the Greek default drama. With the impact of the Fed’s comments from last week dying down, positive developments in Europe have been pushing the markets higher, a nice change of pace from the recent Fed speculation cycle in which the market was stuck. Investors will also be anticipating some key economic data today including durable goods orders and new home sales. New home sales, in particular, will be watched after yesterday’s particularly strong existing home sales report. The report showed the purchase of existing homes increasing to its fastest pace in over five and a half years. A recovering housing market will strengthen the Fed’s data dependent case to increase rates. In overnight trading, the dollar is gaining versus the euro as Greek negotiations heat up while Treasuries are moving slightly lower. Make sure to listen to Money Matters with Gary Goldberg this Sunday at 11:00 AM on WOR 710 AM Radio to hear our latest economic and market analysis. Visit our website www.ggfs.com for details.

 

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