Market Recap: 
Stocks sold off at a quick pace, losing more than 1%, as investors continued to worry about the impact of asset purchase tapering. Moreover, market participants seemed to greet news of a bi-partisan accord to forge a two year budget deal, which includes spending caps and deficit reductions of about $23 billion. All sectors of the S&P were lower, with telecom and healthcare shares leading to the downside. A weak treasury auction caused prices to drop a bit, and commodity prices retreated.
 
Looking Ahead: 
The 8:30 AM release of Jobless Claim data and retail sales figures will be closely scrutinized, as strong data will likely inflate the probability of “early” tapering by the Fed. European and Asian shares are lower in overnight trading, following through on yesterday’s US market action. While economic reports have continuously improved, they have done so at an uneven pace and we suspect not sufficiently to drive policy makers, who meet next Tuesday and Wednesday for this years’ last FOMC meeting, to change direction or begin tapering. Having said that, there is a small possibility that Mr. Bernanke, whose term is ending in January, may taper asset purchases slightly in an effort to provide a smoother transition for incoming Chairwoman Janet Yellen. The reality is that tapering asset purchases from $85 billion a month to $75 billion per month is not a material change in policy and is unlikely to renew any liquidity concerns. However, such an ‘early’ move could prove politically helpful to policy makers next year.
 
Tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg every Sunday at 2:00 PM on WOR 710 AM radio to hear our latest economic analysis, upcoming interviews with Anne Coulter, as well as our ongoing market commentary. Visit our website www.ggfs.com for details.

The GGFS Investment Committee
Optimistic by Nature, Defensive by Strategy
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Market Recap:
Taper or not, investors seemed satisfied with strong double-digit gains so far this year and took some profits on Tuesday. Markets were supported as word of a pending budget deal made the rounds and economic data came in slightly stronger than expected. Some market participants and observers speculated that the Fed would announce its first round of asset purchase tapering as soon as next Wednesday, after the two day FOMC meeting. Most sectors of the S&P were down, with Utilities fairing worst and technology shares outperforming.

Looking Ahead:
There is little economic data being reported today, so we anticipate a quiet trading day as market participants will wait for Jobless Claims, Retail Sales data, Business Inventories figures and several other reports. While the likelihood of asset tapering has clearly increased, we continue to believe that any dramatic shift in policy is quite a ways away and that interest rate policy is unlikely to change in 2014.

Moreover, we see little news or data that would cause a significant market correction in the near-term. Rather, we expect markets to vacillate and trade in a tight range before a catalyst propels stocks higher in 2014. Given the strong gains made in 2013 and the uncertainty of the impact of asset tapering, a mild short-term pull back in early 2014 stands at a 50%plus probability.

Make sure to tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg every Sunday at 2:00 PM on WOR 710 AM Radio to hear our latest economic analysis, interviews with some of today’s most respected business leaders, as well as our ongoing market commentary. Visit our website www.ggfs.com for details.

The GGFS Investment Committee
Optimistic by Nature, Defensive by Strategy
www.ggfs.com
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Market Recap:
Stocks inched forward to new highs as investors debated the impact and timing of asset purchase tapering by the Fed. Budget discussion in DC also weighed on investors’ minds, although the hope of a two year deal is still alive. Most sectors of the S&P were higher, led by materials and consumer discretionary shares. Oil and other commodities retreated, while the US Dollar was mixed. Treasury and other yields remained relatively flat, indicating that bond market participants do not expect any tapering to be announced at next week’s FOMC meeting.

Looking Ahead:
Interest rates continue to inch higher this morning, as investors appear to be repositioning their portfolios to reflect slightly stronger economic growth and likely asset purchase tapering. While some analysts are calling for a sharp correction if the Ten Year Treasury Yield rises above 3%, we do not believe this will be the case. Next week’s FOMC meeting and minutes release will likely show increased discussions about the timing of tapering and may even indicate the size and scope of tapering. However, we also expect the majority of voting members to stick to their current mantra of wanting to see more data confirming the strength of the recovery before taking action. While last week’s employment data was encouraging, the rate dropped as a result of changing demographics (as we discussed in our recently released “Preparing your portfolio for 2014” report) as well as seasonal factors. More significantly, the upward revision in Q3 GDP growth was largely due to a stock-up in inventories, which is expected to place a drag on Q4 GDP. Moreover, global data continues to be mixed, and while the US Fed is likely to take the lead on any changes in policy, we remind investors that Central Banks coordinated efforts to lift the global economy has been a key to the turnaround. As such, we do not anticipate any surprise moves by the Fed.

Tune into  Money Matters with Gary Goldberg every Sunday at 2:00 PM on WOR 710 AM radio to hear our latest economic analysis, interviews with some of today’s most respected business leaders, as well as our ongoing market commentary. Visit our website www.ggfs.com for details.

The GGFS Investment Committee
Optimistic by Nature, Defensive by Strategy
www.ggfs.com
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Market Recap:
Markets rallied on Friday, as market participants took encouraging economic news – in the form of a much stronger than expected jobs report and rising consumer sentiment - as positive news. Friday’s market activity demonstrated a change in investor focus, shifting more attention to economic growth and (most likely) corporate earnings over fed policy or when asset tapering might occur. All sectors of the S&P were higher, with Industrial and Material shares gaining most. For the week, stocks lost a small fraction of a percent.

Looking Ahead:
There is little economic news being reported on Monday, so expect market strategists and talking heads to ratchet-up talk of tapering as soon as next week’s FOMC meeting. Tuesday morning’s Small Business Optimism and JOLTS reports will likely prove critical, potentially reinforcing last week’s strong economic data. Make sure to tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg every Sunday at 2:00 PM on WOR 710 AM radio to get our latest economic analysis, interviews with some of today’s most respected business leaders, as well as our ongoing market commentary. Visit our website www.ggfs.com for details.

This Week’s Market Moving Events:

Monday:
German Industrial Production data before the open, no major US data

Tuesday:
7:30 AM Small Business Optimism, 8:55 AM Redbook Report, 10:00 AM JOLTS and Whole Sale Trade

Wednesday:
7:00 AM MBNA Purchases, 2:00 PM Treasury Budget

Thursday:
EU Industrial Production, 8:30 AM Jobless Claims, Retail Sales and Import Export figures.

Friday:
8:30 AM PPI

The GGFS Investment Committee
Optimistic by Nature, Defensive by Strategy
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Friday, December 6, 2013

Market Recap:

The U.S. economy grew at a (revised) annual pace of 3.6% in the third quarter, mostly as a result of inventory buildups. The stronger than expected growth figures kept the worries over Fed tapering alive and caused stocks to decline for a fifth consecutive day on Thursday. All sectors of the S&P were lower, with financial and telecom shares performing worst. The better than expected economic data also caused a sell-off in Treasuries, driving yields to their highest levels since the summer. The dollar weakened slightly, and commodities rose. As predicted, the ECB left rates unchanged and announced that it expects inflationary pressures to ease further in 2014, indicating that additional stimulus could be on its way. Stocks did recoup a chunk of their losses as rumors surfaced that progress was being made on a two year budget deal.

Looking Ahead:

Although market participants continue to be concerned over a strengthening economy causing the Fed to begin tapering asset purchases sooner than initial thought, we believe any change in policy is still a ways away. While the economy was reported to grow at a much quicker than forecast pace (3.6%), it did so as a result of inventory buildups and seasonal factors. As a result of this, fourth quarter GDP expectation will likely be revised downward, bringing full year growth to the 2 ¼ to 2 ½% range, likely delaying any tapering – Watch our discussion on Fox Business News: Click here - More significantly, as this morning’s employment report illustrated, gains in the labor market are still uneven. Non-farm payrolls rose 203,000 and the unemployment rate dropped to 7%, while average hours worked only rose slightly. While the data is positive, it is slightly weaker than expected causing markets (equity futures) to rally before the market open.

Make sure to tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg every Sunday at 2:00 PM on WOR 710 AM radio to get our latest economic analysis, interviews with some of today’s most respected business leaders, as well as our ongoing market commentary. Visit our website www.ggfs.com for details.  

The GGFS Investment Committee
Optimistic by Nature, Defensive by Strategy
www.ggfs.com
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Looking Ahead:
This morning's GDP report could prove problematic for bulls. The initial read on Q3 GDP was a much stronger than forecast 2.7% gain, which could be revised higher, further unnerving investors who fear Fed tapering. Given the Fed's clearly spelled out intentions to telegraph any move by providing markets with significant "forward guidance," any change in policy or asset tapering would come after at least 2 or 3 months of discussions and "guidance" by the Fed, most likely through the release of FOMC minutes. International data relating to the global recovery continues to be mixed as is evidenced by Japan's Parliament authorization of additional stimulus.

Make sure to tune into Fox Business today at 12:30 when our President Oliver Pursche discusses our year end outlook and why tapering is most likely more distant than most expect. Tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg every Sunday at 2:00 PM on WOR 710 AM radio to listen to Gary's discussion with Sam Stovall, the Chief Equity Strategist at S&P Capital IQ. Visit our website www.ggfs.com for details.

The GGFS Investment Committee
Optimistic by Nature, Defensive by Strategy
www.ggfs.com
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Wednesday, December 4, 2013, Market Commentary

Market Recap:
Stocks sold off for a third day in a row on Tuesday, accelerating losses towards the end of the trading day. While retail sales over the holiday weekend and “cyber Monday” were stronger than expected, discounts on merchandise were also steeper than forecast, raising concerns over revenues and profits. Market Participants were also concerned that the stronger than expected construction spending and manufacturing reports released on Monday would cause the Fed to tapper in January – sooner than forecast. All sectors of the S&P were negative, with materials and financial shares underperforming, while commodities rallied.

Looking Ahead:
European economic data was reported in line with expectations, with Eurozone GDP growing 0.1% from last quarter, but contracting 0.4% year-over-year. Today’s New Home Sales figures as well as ISM non-manufacturing data  and Beige Book reports will be closely watched, as market participants will look for additional clues regarding the strength of the US economy and hints of any potential tapering by the Fed.

Is the current sell-off a buying opportunity or time to cash in some chips? That’s the question many of our clients are asking us. In our view, markets will continue to rise over the next 6 to 18 months, albeit unevenly and with increased volatility.

Over the intermediate and long-term (6 to 18 months) stocks will continue to benefit from ongoing easy monetary policy. The Fed has made it clear that as long as unemployment continues to be elevated and inflation is below its 2% target, interest rates will remain very low, and asset purchases (QE) will continue. This will continue to benefit stocks and hard assets.

Over the short-term (next 6 months) stocks should perform reasonably well, however will be subject to increased volatility and will face several headwinds. In addition to continued uneven economic data, investors will have to contend with several geo-political issues. In the United States, Congress will have to take up the spending and tax debate once again in the early part of 2014. Internationally, European policy makers (in particular the ECB) will likely face pressures to reduce the levels of intervention, especially as richer nations, such as Germany and France’s economies grow at a stronger pace than forecast. Additionally, there will likely be a flare up in the middle-east, which would cause a spike in oil prices and raise fears of inflation.  Investors should remember that while some small amount of tapering of asset purchases will likely occur in 2014, monetary policy will remain very supportive.

Tune into Fox Business News on Thursday at noon to watch our President, Oliver Pursche, give our latest economic and market outlook and make sure to tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg every Sunday at 2:00 PM on WOR 710 AM radio for a deeper analysis of the markets and a great interview with S&P Capital IQ’s Sam Stovall. Visit our website www.ggfs.com for details.

The GGFS Investment Committee
Optimistic by Nature, Defensive by Strategy
www.ggfs.com
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Market Recap:
While stocks started the trading day on the upside, selling pressure set in during the last hour of trading, causing small losses across the board. Most sectors of the S&P were lower, with telecom shares lagging and internet stocks performing best. The holiday shopping season appears to be off to a mixed start, as “Cyber Monday” sales seemed disappointing, and overall retail sales fared just short of expectations. However, by the end of the day, according to IBM, Cyber Monday sales figures jumped and exceeded expectations. The mixed sales data was offset by better than forecast manufacturing data and rising expectations of continued strength for the global recovery. At this stage, many investors are asking themselves if the market is overdue for a correction – watch our CNBC discussion on the matter here. Generally speaking, we continue to be bullish and remain near fully invested – although we are also maintaining our traditionally defensive stance.

Oliver Pursche, President of Gary Goldberg Financial Services
CNBC Appearance - Betting on the 'Santa Claus' Rally

Looking Ahead:
Market participants will be keeping a close eye on Auto Sales figures, which are expected to rise 4.7% and will be released at 8:30 AM EST. While the global manufacturing sector continues to gather strength, inflation continues to be subdued. This is in part due to increasing supplies of commodities, causing their prices to fall, and an abundance of available labor. Based on demographic studies, including migration trends, we do not see a significant shift in the underlying trend. While we do expect labor markets to tighten slightly, and the unemployment rate to drop below 7% in 2014, we do not expect a rise in wage inflation (to receive a free copy of our “Preparing your portfolio for 2014” report, email us at info@garygoldberg.com) . Based on our analysis, while expecting an increase in volatility, we believe markets will continue to rise over the next 8 to 12 months.

Tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg every Sunday at 2:00 PM on WOR 710 AM radio to hear our latest economic analysis, interviews with some of today’s most respected business leaders, as well as our ongoing market commentary. Visit our website www.ggfs.com for details.

The GGFS Investment Committee
Optimistic by Nature, Defensive by Strategy
www.ggfs.com
Mobile App NOW Available

Market Recap:
Stocks ended November on a mixed note, but climbed more than 2% for the month. Sectors of the S&P were mixed, with utilities lagging and technology shares rising most. Commodities were mixed again, with oil falling to a six month low on over-supply concerns. Treasuries and bonds were mostly steady, trading in a tight range as mixed economic news kept traders in check.

Looking Ahead:
It will be a very busy week for market participants as over thirty economic reports are being released this week. In addition to retail sales figures from Black Friday and Cyber Monday, vehicle sales will be reported on Tuesday morning – which our President Oliver Pursche will be discussing on CNBC this afternoon at 4:50 PM – as well as third quarter GDP data on Thursday (make sure to catch Oliver on Fox Business at noon on Thursday for read on the economy and what might be in store for markets in the last three weeks of the year). So far this morning equity futures are pointing to a slightly higher open after initial reports show retail sales climbing by 2.3% from last year’s Thanksgiving holiday sales.

Tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg every Sunday at 2:00 PM on WOR 710 AM radio to hear our latest economic analysis, interviews with some of today’s most respected business leaders, as well as our ongoing market commentary. Visit our website www.ggfs.com for details.

The GGFS Investment Committee
Optimistic by Nature, Defensive by Strategy
www.ggfs.com
Mobile App NOW Available

Friday, November 29, 2013, Market Commentary

Market Recap:

Wednesday trading was light and steady, with stocks climbing to new highs. Most sectors of the S&P were higher, with technology shares rallying the most on positive earnings news and outlook from Hewlett Packard (HPQ), whose shares rose 9%. Commodities were mixed, with oil falling to a six month low and gold and silver also falling slightly. Through the close of business Wednesday, major stock market indexes are up over 2% in November.

Looking Ahead:

Friday’s trading will be light and shortened, as the NYSE and other markets close at 1:00 PM today. As of 7:00 AM futures are indicating a higher open, following through on Wednesday’s action. While today will be a quiet day for markets, economic data will be released in droves next week.

Next week’s market moving events:

• Monday:  8:30 AM Consumer Spending data, 8:58 AM PMI, 10:000 AM ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending

• Tuesday:  8:55 AM US Redbook data and Motor Vehicle Sales

• Wednesday:  7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications, 8:15 AM ADP Employment report, 8:30 AM Job Creation data and International Trade figures, 10:00 AM New Home Sales and ISM Non-Manufacturing, 2:00 PM Beige Book

• Thursday:  8:30 AM US Payrolls to Populations, Q3 GDP, Jobless Claims, Corporate Profit data, 9:45 AM Consumer Confidence, 10:00 AM Factory Order

• Friday:  5:00 AM Eurozone GDP, 8:30 AM US Employment Report, 9:55 AM Consumer Sentiment, 3:00 PM Consumer Credit

Tune into Money Matters with Gary Goldberg every Sunday at 2:00 PM on WOR 710 AM radio to hear our latest economic analysis, interviews with some of today’s most respected business leaders, as well as our ongoing market commentary. Don’t miss our President, Oliver Pursche, on CNBC Mondays at 4:50 PM – visit our website www.ggfs.com for details.

The GGFS Investment Committee
Optimistic by Nature, Defensive by Strategy
www.ggfs.com
Mobile App NOW Available